India-Pakistan Development of Drones: Implications for Strategic Stability

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of drone technology advancements by India and Pakistan on strategic stability in South Asia. It addresses a critical research gap by analyzing how these developments impact deterrence, crisis stability, and arms race dynamics in the region. The study questions whether the rapid growth of drone capabilities disrupts established deterrence frameworks, heightens crisis instability, and accelerates an arms race. Using a qualitative approach, the paper draws on secondary sources, including military reports and academic research. The findings indicate that India’s pursuit of swarm and autonomous drones poses a direct threat to deterrence stability by introducing counterforce capabilities targeting Pakistan’s second-strike assets. In contrast, Pakistan’s drone use is focused on reinforcing its deterrent posture and improving crisis management through enhanced ISR operations. However, India's technological edge increases the risk of escalation, destabilizing the regional security environment. The ongoing technological buildup in both countries also triggers an action-reaction cycle, undermining arms race stability. This study emphasizes the urgency of addressing India’s destabilizing drone developments to maintain strategic balance and prevent escalation.