From Iran’s Strategic Patience to Active Deterrence: Doctrinal Transformation and the Reordering of West Asian Security

Abstract

The 2026 Iran war has immensely impacted the West Asian security order. Differences between the United States (U.S.) and Israel with Iran are more than four decades old, but these differences have never led to a limited or full-scale war. Despite huge pressure from the U.S. and Israel, Iran adopted the doctrine of strategic patience, while the U.S. also preferred immense economic sanctions on Iran instead of direct military confrontation. This paper is an attempt to analyse how and why Iran shifted its policy from strategic patience to active deterrence, as well as how this doctrinal transformation of Iran played a significant role in the reordering of the West Asian security. To address these questions, the theoretical combination and integration of offensive realism and deterrence is employed, which maintains that Iran’s shift from strategic patience to active deterrence is not a tactical adjustment but rather represents a structural transformation.